ENSO caused by high tidal pulses and by solar activity.

Lunar Perigee Pulses, variation in solar wind and Earth’s magnetic field are the main drivers behind El Niño and La Niña swings

I discovered the solution to the most important enigma in climate science and in meteorology which is what are the forces that are behind ENSO variability.

There are two main drivers of ENSO. ENSO stands for El Niño Southern Oscillation and is Earth’s most influential weather phenomena after seasonal changes. When the ENSO index changes this causes change in currents and temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

The most important ENSO driver is linked to variations in gravitational tidal forcing, associated with Moon’s Perigee. Moon is in what is called Perigee, when the Moon is at its closest point during its elliptical orbit around Earth. This is also when tidal force caused by the Moon is at its strongest.

High tidal pulses are also what is causing Kelvin Waves.

The second most important forcing is linked to variations in solar activity.

I have identified these two basic underlining forces for ENSO by creating and utilizing an ANN I’ve built. ANN stands for Artificial Neural Network and is a pattern recognition technique. This is a form of Artificial Intelligence which is used in many different types of applications. This can be in everything from different types of forecasts, in robotics, data mining and for different kinds of identification.

Here is some background on why I’m looked into the climate and why I started to use ANN as an effective tool in analyzing ENSO.

ENSO-ANN-big

This is the result I recently got from the ANN that I’m using.
The ENSO value which is in red is up to and including June 2016 is from the MEI ENSO index.
MEI is an acronym for the Multivariate ENSO Index which is an ENSO index compiled by NOAA.
I use training time from 1979 up to the end of 2004.
I use as test period the period between 2005 and up to 2016 and predictions from the start of 2016 and up to 2022 which includes simulated solar and magnetic data for this predictive period.

ENSO-forecast-9-july-16

Here’s a close up picture over ENSO predictions up to 2022.The ENSO value is for the real MEI value up to and including June 2016.
Note: The weight values inside the ANN are based on a training period which is saved at the point where the testing part reaches its minimal variance error value.

The input values that are used in the neurons use no ENSO data. Only input values from the Perigee gravitational pulse values in the form of a vector size and its latitude angle against the equator, plus Ap, Kp and solar wind data are used as inputs. The input values are from monthly values going back 3 years.
I think myself, that that is very impressive.

I’m not finished with my work to get optimal ENSO predictions. There are still a number of improvements I’m going to make.
One thing I’m going to do is to reduce the overfitting problem with my ANN. The remedy should be simple. Currently I’m saving the weight values when the variance error reaches its minimum at the testing part. Instead I should save the weight values just a bit before when the error value reaches its minimum. By doing this I should be able to reduce extra statistical noise which is increasingly introduced near the minimal value before the error value start to diverge. In my case however this is not a big problem. The data I use in my ANN response and convergence quite quickly.

One other thing I’m going to do, is to use several runs and creating many different predictions. By doing this I’m going to get an ensemble of predictions and by using their mean value I expect better and more robust predictions.





 

Let’s look more closely at the underlining drives of ENSO.

There are 2 different major drives of ENSO.
These 2 dominant drivers are as has been described above, Lunar Perigee pulses and electromagnetic solar effects.

Let’s first look at lunar perigee pulses. The Moon’s orbit is tilted about 5 degrees relative to the ecliptic plane. This means that the Moon’s position can vary between (plus/minus) 23 degrees, which is the Earth’s tilt on its axel plus/minus 5 degrees. This gives a max/min latitude value of 28 degrees. The Moon moves in an elliptical orbit where the distance to the Earth differs by about 20%. This gives a variation in lunar tidal forcing at high tide of about 60% between when it is furthest away from Earth and when it is at its closest distance. When the Sun is in line with the Moon, in other words when the Moon is full or new, the tidal gravitational force at high tide is increased by an additional 30% relative to when the Moon is half because of the Sun’s tidal influence.
When I talk about tidal forcing I mean in this context the maximal gravitational forcing anomaly at high tide. I don’t mean sea level changes during tides.

In my calculations I begin with calculations of the gravitational tidal vector of the Moon and of the Sun. I use the equation which can be found on this page. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_force

I then combine these 2 vectors from the Moon and the Sun and produce a vector for the total gravitational anomaly during Moon’s Perigee. In my ANN I use a vector value and its latitude angle against the equator. But, I’m not using the real vector value for the lunar Perigee. Instead I’ve used 3 parameters which I have changed iteratively. Thereby I have been able to reduce the error in the variance in the test part of the ANN. I’ve done this to manage months when there are 2 lunar Perigees instead of just 1. I have also used exponent parameters because I’ve assumed, correctly that the gravitational forcing on ENSO is not linear.
Here are pseudo code from my program which was written in VB6 how I calculate the tidal force vector and the modified gravitational vector I use in my ANN.<b>Coming soon</b>
And here is a file with the values for the real gravitational vector and the vector I use in the ANN.<b>Coming soon</b>
Here is a file with the estimate derivate MEI ENSO (ΔENSO) for each month between 1973 up to 2030 <b>Coming soon</b>
Note: On this ΔENSO file, that the added solar activity component is not included.

I became interested in ENSO while I started to experiment with an ANN while comparing ENSO and variations in the global temperature as measured from satellite. I knew based on scientific papers that the Sun has an important influence on changes on the global temperature anomaly. Then I’ve heard about that there was a direct correlation with changes in Earth’s rotation LOD (Length Of Day) and ENSO. This led me to examine if the tide could have any effect on ENSO. I’ve used Alcyone Ephemeris from Alcyone Software to get the data of the exact position of the Moon and the Sun, so that I could calculate the tidal gravitational forces during high tides.

After some time, I found out that there were correlations between the Moon’s gravitational force during Perigee and ENSO, but the correlations were not directly with the size of the ENSO index, instead these correlations were directly linked the derivate values of the ENSO index. In other words, the gravitational anomaly was directly linked with a gravitational impulse during Perigee. I then got even better results when I combined the Lunar Perigee gravitational anomaly vector and the Sun’s gravitational vector at the time of Lunar Perigee.

Here is what I think is the reason for this Lunar Perigee correlation to the derivate value of ENSO.
Once every time in Moon’s orbit, during the day when the Moon is in Perigee, it sends out a pulse speeding up or slowing down the Northern and Southern Pacific gyro depending on the gravitational force vector’s strength and on the latitude of this vector

One way to visualize this is to compare this to the number 8, with two wheels. The upper gyro is rotating clockwise while the lower gyro is rotating anti-clockwise. In mid latitudes the wind as well as sea currents move from west to east because of the Coriolis Effect. At the equator there is no Coriolis Effect. These water currents which are driven by the Coriolis Effect have to go somewhere. Therefore, it moves towards the equator alongside the South and North American coasts and turns to the west just a few degrees from the equator as the Coriolis Effect there is almost absent.

What few seem to have realized is that the rotations of the Pacific gyros also affected by tidal forcing during Perigee.
The variations of the tidal vector forcing and its angle relative to the equator varies a great deal from one Lunar Perigee to the next, which gives this effect a chaotic appearance and because of its chaotic effect it has up till now masked this effect so that researchers hasn’t been able to discover this. When the gyros speed up you get La Niña conditions and when they speed down you get El Niño conditions.
Here is a report describing links between the North Pacific Gyro and ENSO. http://www.o3d.org/npgo/

By which mechanism or mechanisms do the tidal perigee pulses affect ENSO and the Pacific gyros?

Here I can only speculate as I have concentrated my work on the statistical patterns rather than on possible physical mechanisms.
One mechanism could be that the tidal anomaly creates a bulge in Earth’s crust. For example, of the crust rises over the equator then Earth’s rotation slowdown in the same way as when an ice skate dancer slow down his or her rotation when arms spreads out. Changes in Earth’s rotation affects the sea current near the equator more than at higher latitudes as the water there is further out from Earth’s center of rotation, than water closer to the poles.
Another cause could be that extra water pile up during Perigee at the western part near land of the Pacific Ocean and depending at which latitude the tidal gravitation is strongest the effect on the Pacific gyros are different. Also, another effect can be that the pressure difference between different latitudes causes the trade wind to vary which affects ENSO through the Walker circulation effect.

I should also mention here that I have tried to estimate changes in the speed near the equator by looking at data from the TOA buoy system. By taking the difference in tidal force between the equator and at 10 degrees away from the equator and compare this value against the zonal sea current speed at 170 West at the equator at 50 meters’ depth and estimate this by linear regression I found that the maximum sea current change at each Perigee to be about plus/minus 10 cm/s at that location. This is a difference of about 20 cm/s which is a maximal change of about 0.4 knots. I only took a quick look at this and if others want to look at this closer it would be appreciated.

Another mechanism I looked into was that Lunar Perigee Pulses could affect ENSO via Kelvin Waves. Tropical Kelvin Wave is a gravitational wave mechanism which moves warm water from the western Pacific warm pool under the surface eastward following the Equatorial counter current. This warm water might resurface near the Galapagos or Ecuador. If it does this, then it fuels El Niños with warm water. What I found was that it did that, and in fact all Kelvin Waves are generated by Lunar Perigee Pulses.

kelvin_wave2004

This figure shows the temperature anomaly along the equator in the Pacific from 130 E to 80W over a time period during 2004-2005. As you can see the temperature slope of warm water show how this water is moving east over time in what is called Kelvin Waves. Just East of New Guinea lies an area which is called the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. When the trade winds shift in this region and become westerly, Kelvin Waves are often generated. I’ve marked Perigee dates in green at the left at 130 degree longitude. If you follow the slope of the temperature ridge towards the left and continue to the left edge at 130 East, then you can see that these lines point directly to Perigee dates. I’ve marked these Perigee dates where they meet in red. The Perigee dates for this period are for 2004 Mar 12, Apr 8, May 6, Jun 3, Jul 1, Jul 30, Aug 27, Sep 22, Oct 18, Nov 14, Dec 12 and for 2005 Jan 10, Feb 7.

Kelvin_wave2015

The same thing was also true for 2014-2015. Here are the dates for Perigee for 2014 Sep 8, Oct 6, Nov 3, Nov 27, Dev 24 and for 2015 Jan 21, Feb 19, Mar 19, Apr 17, May 15, Jun 10, Jul 5.

As you can see not every Perigee date creates a Kelvin Wave. In fact, no consecutive Perigee dates, both generates Kelvin Wave. This can be, because of some recharging effect, but more likely this is because of the variability of the strength of Lunar Perigee Pulses and on which latitude this force is strongest.

Because of this correlation, I believe that Kelvin Waves can be predicted when they should happen and their strengths by analyzing the strength of the gravitational anomaly during Perigee pulses, on which latitude they are located and by include data over the current value of ENSO.

It wasn’t a surprise for me that I identified Lunar Perigee Pulses as the source of Kelvin Waves, given that I already had identified Lunar Perigee Pulses as a main driver of ENSO. What I can’t understand is that nobody, as far as I know, have identified Strong tidal pulses as possible sources of Kelvin Waves. As you can see from these sea temperature pictures of Kelvin Waves, they exhibit a repetitive pattern. Lunar Perigee happens every 27.555 days. Two nearby kelvin Waves happens after about 55 days apart.

The second effect comes from variations in the Sun’s electromagnetic activity, mainly from variation in the solar wind and from changes in Earth’s magnetic field, which has an indirect effect on ENSO. Ap and Kp index that are values related to Earth’s magnetic field are heavily influenced by solar activity.

What I think happens is that solar activity affects the behavior of the jet stream also known as Rossby Waves. When the Sun is weak the jet stream moves more toward the equator and becomes wavier which leads to more blockings and more incidence of extreme weather. When there are solar storms, then index like NAO and AO are affected leading to stormier weather and phenomena like sudden stratospheric warming. The result is changes in pressure and because the atmospheric angular momentum of the Earth must be constant this also affects tropical trade winds. Trade winds variations affect the Walker Circulation which also drives changes in ENSO. So you have a sort of chain reaction in steps from pressure changes in the polar regions which eventually affect ENSO. When the solar wind and Earth’s magnetic are strong then the ENSO index trend to be higher and when they are weak then ENSO tend to become weaker.

The main ENSO driver is from tidal pulse influences, but then comes the effects from solar activity which then has to be superimposed with the tidal perigee pulse effect. By combining these effects I’ve been able to get good results and find the solution for why ENSO varies over time.

Further, because ENSO is modulated by changes in solar activity, this effect has an important effect on global temperature trends. Strong solar activity favors more and stronger El Niños and weak solar activity, which we have now, has the opposite effect. I think that an important reason for the warming during the period between 1975 and 2000 can be attributed to this coupling between solar activity and ENSO, which is not human caused. Note: while strong El Niños results in warmer air and higher sea surface temperatures, the Earth as a whole loose heat as more heat is radiated out into space. La Niñas has the opposite effect.

There is a third driver of ENSO and that is what I would call random weather fluctuation which is not linked to tidal or solar effects. This adds extra noise which probably is stochastic in nature. Because of its stochastic nature its effect diminishes over time.
In my ANN as part of the input I also feed in seasonal data. By doing this, El Niño which often peeks during Christmas time, should be simulated right.

Ap-index-forecast

Ap Index value from 1979 up to 2015. After that simulated

Here is an example of the Ap Index I use as input to my ANN calculation.
In this example, real values are used up to the end of 2014. After 2014 simulated values are used with declining values as this solar cycle 24 has moved beyond its peeks and are now declining. I use estimated declining value and have added random noise as a way to simulate the expected future values and also changes in its dynamic behavior.
I did the same for the Kp Index and for the solar wind temperature, pressure and speed.




 

 

Conclusion

The two most important underlining and dominant drivers of ENSO are linked to Lunar Tidal Perigee pulses and to variations in the Sun’s electromagnetic activity.
While I’m able to make long range ENSO predictions with reasonable predictive skills using my ANN software, the real big discovery I have made is how the Lunar Perigee Gravitational Pulses drives ENSO variations.
Why nobody has figured this out is beyond me, especially the Tidal Perigee Pulses, while I’ll might add that if you don’t know what you are looking for its hard to find because of its chaotic nature which is timed at the time of Lunar Perigees.

I may add that there are individual researches outside of the mainstream that have pointed out connections between Lunar cycles and/or to variations in the Sun’s electromagnetic activity and linked them to ENSO variations. So, while extensive research has been done by mainstream scientists in trying to understand the behavior of ENSO, they totally missed the two most important drives of ENSO variations. Quite amazing.

There are 2 lunar cycles which determines the Lunar Perigee pulse effect on ENSO. One is an 8.8 year cycle. This is the Moon’s elliptical orbital seasonal rotation around the Earth. The point for the Perigee moves because of this effect slightly around the Earth with a frequency of 8.8 year.
The other is the movement of the Moon’s nodes which orbit around the Earth takes about 18.6 year. This is the rotation around the Earth of the points where Moon’s orbit crosses the ecliptic plane.
The gravitational Lunar Perigee pulses act during a very small time window as the Moon moves at about 14.4 degrees per day during Perigee. The two Moon cycles are not synchronized to each other. As a result of the setup of these two cycles, the tidal Perigee pulses almost never repeat itself over short time scale and this creates seemingly very chaotic behavior.

It is my believe that the discovery I’ve made with my ANN represents a breakthrough in both the understanding of the ENSO phenomena and a breakthrough in ENSO forecasting.

IPCC and the researchers working in this field in academia has assumed that ENSO is driven by stochastic weather noise working on an instable ENSO mechanism and that the best approach forward is to apply chaos theory to explain what is happening. The way for them to improve their results is to ask for more powerful supercomputer and to use smaller increment in time and space of their ENSO model calculations. I can show that their assumptions are wrong and that more powerful computers won’t improve their forecasts.

There are estimations in some papers which show that ENSO probably has contributed more than 50% to the climate change since 1950. Personally I believe this figure should be somewhere between 30% and 70%, but that is something for others to figure out.

Because the major drivers of ENSO are not random weather noise but rather powered by externally systematic forces that lies outside Earth’s internal weather dynamics, my discovery doesn’t give support for dangerous anthropogenic global warming. On the contrary.
The problem with the climate community apart from their obsession with the AGW theory is that they ignore possible natural drivers. I think that to look outside internal climate variability is something which lies outside most climate researcher’s comfort zone. The main error they make is that they think that both ENSO and climate change long term is mainly driven by internal variability, changes in levels of CO2 and variations in TSI, while ignoring factors such as tidal gravitational pulses and electromagnetic variations of solar activity. It also seems to me that they spend too much time looking at the energy balance between ingoing and outgoing energy and not enough at heat re-distribution from water circulations of Earth’s Oceans. Remember, the heat balance between ingoing and outgoing energy has only been measured by satellites for a few decades.

ENSO variability is natural and driven by external forces that are outside random weather variability and that that one of these forces is from high tidal pulses. Which is a claim I can backup not only from the results from my ANN software but also with the Kelvin Waves diagram above which links Perigee dates to the forming of Kelvin Waves, Because of this, I think that my discovery should be as important that the Climategate scandal had on the CAGW controversy.

The problem with the current used computer models of ENSO and for GCM models in general, which use partial differential equations based on thermodynamic laws within small cubes and small increments, is that they ignore important external influences such as tidal and solar forces.

Oh! One more thing! Solar electromagnetic activity, such as sunspots has been historically closely correlated with changes of Earth’s climate. One possible mechanism for this correlation has been suggested to by Henrik Svensmark to be from changes in cloudiness caused by nucleation from ions caused by variations in GCR Galactic Cosmic Rays emanating from supernovas. The number of cosmic rays hitting Earth increases when the Sun is weak and decrease when the Sun is strong. The problem with that theory which some climate scientists has pointed out is that this effect exists, but it is too weak. Therefore, GCR cannot be the cause of recent changes in the climate. I tend to agree with them on this. I think that ENSO which is affected by solar variations as has been described above is a better candidate for changes in climate, as it affects SST and the global temperature anomaly. In other words, the connection between solar activity and global temperature is caused in part by ENSO water circulation which affects water surface temperatures.

Learn more on the specifics of my ANN software and in its use of solving ENSO variability.

People like me are either paid by ExxonMobil or by some of the oil billionaire from Kansas in a well-funded campaign in order to spread anti science lies and confusion. That’s the conspiracy theory that has been marketed by Greenpeace.

Of course, the reality is quite different as this work is done on a shoestring budget.
I’ve cracked the ENSO code. That’s my claim anyway. Now, I need to convince others. My work is important as this is the solution for the biggest mystery in climate science/meteorology that has exist, what are the trigger for ENSO variations?

What I plan to do next are among other things, to improve my results, there are still steps I can make to get better results, to publish my results in a scientific journal and to make sure so that scientist in this field can verify my main discovery, that Lunar Perigee pulses are the main drives of ENSO variability.

The study of ENSO MEI index is only the beginning. To change target with my method I can just change the target from MEI value to whatever I want to study. I also like to point out that when my explanation for these drivers of ENSO becomes accepted then the question many will raise is why hasn’t researchers within the climate community discovered these ENSO drivers before and why don’t they include electromagnetic variation in their climate models?

So. please make a donation and support my important work.


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